Bernstein: Macau February GGR could fall 95 percent

A note from Bernstein Research predicts that Macau’s February GGR could fall as much as 95 percent year-on-year in the event that the casino closure is extended beyond the initial two-week period, which some believe to be likely.

“There is a strong possibility of an extension of the shut-down order,” Bernstein’s analysts write.

Looking forward, they observe. “Forecasts for the near term (i.e. 1H 2020) are largely guesses at this time, with the biggest variables being when casinos reopen, and even more importantly, when travel restrictions from China will be lifted.”

As for the investment implications: “With the casinos shut down and visitation collapse, we are not expecting a turnaround in the near term. Q1 will almost certainly see much worse than originally expected results. However, once the virus situation stabilizes and begins to improve, we expect a sharp recovery in visitation and GGR in Macau.”